This is how past behavior influences the present:
You look at the trend line.
Everyone slips and falls and backtracks and sidesteps. That’s normal.
When the general trend line of their progress is the same (or different) direction as what they say, it demonstrates a lot.
I had a real hard time getting out of my last toxic relationship. I backslid. I screwed up. I stumbled and I fell back into codependent ways of thinking.
BUT – I said I was progressing toward getting out of that toxic relationship and toxic mindset. And despite all my failings, I kept (generally) moving toward that goal.
And that’s the thing to pay attention to. Where is the goal? When you smooth out the failings and screwups, what’s the general direction of travel?
And if they’re not going the same direction, you make course corrections.